Covid-19 and flogging a dead horse.

It is with much regret that I feel it is my duty to state the bleedin obvious.

Australian PM ‘SmugMo’ Morrison, says he is, at the same time,  as concerned about health matters as he is about economic matters. But if he had acted decisively and with common-sense,  weeks, more than a month ago, we would now be well ahead of the curve, and then dealing with a more manageable  economic challenge.

I say: while there is a continuing health crisis, all economic actions, such as a ‘stimulus’, will be a reckless waste of money, as the efficacy of any such actions will be limited by the necessity to maintain health imperatives: eg, subsidize the wages/extending the unemployment benefits to employees in a business that was forced to lay off most employees or forced to close, by government decisions, based on a health crisis, that proscribe and limit activity. Really?? In what universe does this makes sense?? The issue is the health crisis that is proscribing and limiting activity, the issue is the health crisis that is causing the unemployment and businesses to close down.

Income needs to be provided to those in any lock-down, but a wider stimulus and such like measures need to follow only once the health crisis has been fixed, not before and not during.

Economist Henry Ergas, who previously worked at the OECD and has advised companies and governments, warned Morrison of the dangers of going “too far” in the efforts to combat the spread of the virus.

He wrote: “Whatever governments do should preserve, to the greatest extent possible, the economy’s ability to rebound.

“Would such an approach save as many lives as a complete shutdown? Possibly not. However, if it could achieve two-thirds of the health objectives at one-third the costs, it would be reckless not to choose it”.

Ergas is presenting a false dichotomy: he says, without argument or evidence, that a shut-down would adversely affect the potentiality of an economic rebound (aside from the fact that he is so reckless with the likelihood of wholly  unnecessary deaths– presumably not including his own!).

Further, two-thirds of the health objective realized is not nearly enough for the potentiality of an economic rebound to occur at all, because the one-third that persists will still restrain activity and confidence.

What is stark in the Covid-19 response is the unforgivable lack of contingency planning, and a lack of common-sense in decision-making moving forward in a systematic way.

Australia is an island

Shut down the country, except for emergency/(genuinely) essential services.

Widespread testing.

Address the virus pool in the community.

Strictly control entry into the country, so virus is not re-introduced, but Australians overseas must be brought back as soon as practicable, and isolated in a dedicated quarantine facility.

Then the economic stimulus.

To do otherwise is bordering on deliberate negligence.

When vaccination is available, it must be offered promptly and systematically.

Morrison, like Ergas, are want to present negatives that are created only in their bizarre scenarios. SmugMo has repeatedly said he doesn’t want school children to miss a year of education. And precisely how is that the case when the country need only be shut-down for 2, 4, 6 or 8 weeks, and with or without remote learning during the shut down, there is sufficient time left in the school year for those weeks to be made up. See?!

There is a real possibility that the incompetence of the political class, and their inability to think reasonably and with common-sense,  will make a bad situation . . . .

much much worse! A failure to act early and decisively on the health issue, will make the health issue worse, and will make the economic issue worse, as the health issue must be solved before the economic issue can be addressed.

No accountability, all secrecy. Monty Python would be better making the decisions; at least we’d get a laugh!

The politicians will not pay for their failure.

But you will!

AFP Task Force established to enforce 1.5 metre rule at urinals.

 

 

Home Affairs minister Peter “Mr Potato Head” Dutton, yesterday announced the establishment of a 500-strong AFP task force to enforce the 1.5 metre ‘social distancing’ rule at urinals in male toilets.

“Australian Federal Police officers will be making spot checks in male toilets,” Mr Dutton said, “and any persons found at a urinal flouting the 1.5 metre rule will be arrested”.

“We have no patience with people putting other people’s  lives at risk”, he added.

It is believed AFP officers will carry tape measures to validate the distance, and the calculation will be based on a shoulder-to-shoulder distance.

AFP Commissioner Kershaw said he was in full support of the crackdown, and that “this task force is further evidence of the government’s intent to protect Australians”.

Hundreds of thousands of Australians have so far lost their jobs due to the Covid-19 crisis. When asked why the cabinet had three times deferred a decision on a tenant eviction ban and mortgage deferment, as comparable countries have enacted, Mr Dutton said “the government has priorities, and that is not one of them”.

Neither Minister Dutton, nor the AFP Commissioner, would confirm or deny reports that AFP officers in the Urinal Task Force have been given permission to use lethal force, although Commissioner Kershaw cautioned offenders from turning around too quickly, as “the male member may be mistaken for a weapon.”

 

 

Covid-19 and the failure of politics.

A protracted confusion: the bumbling and the bungled.

The current Covid-19 crisis, and the related economic difficulties,  demonstrates an unequivocal ineptness by the political class in planning and solution. Indeed, they seem to be ‘making it up as they go along’, and confusion of purpose and contradictions in advice abound. Soberingly, it has –and will mean– the needless death of many Australians.

The government has already allocated $84 billion to measures, with apparently another $100 billion to come (and possibly even more). Yet there is no plan, no strategy –except perhaps to throw many at it–  in what is to be done, when it is to be done, and what results can be expected and when. We are dying by a thousand cuts, as the political class dither or act piecemeal.

Two things are clear to me:

1. If the virus incubation period is 2 weeks, all establishments (businesses, schools, shops etc), except essential/emergency services (children of essential/emergency services workers would need supervision, eg at a school with skeleton staff), need to close for 3 weeks, and all people to self-isolate in their homes. We need to deal decisively with the virus pool in the community. Businesses shouldn’t have to pay to close for this period. If you divide the already announced $84 billion by the number of workers in Australia, you have about $8000 per worker (and an even greater amount if you add the proposed extra $100 billion).

The government pays all workers the average Australian wage for that closure/ self-isolation period, and the government legislates that this period is added to any due date for bills or financial commitments. The week over and above the incubation period is to allow for an orderly return to normal living (eg, to avoid all households attending supermarkets,  hotels or whatever, en masse, perhaps by surname alphabetically in a certain range, selected randomly –I’m sure the “T to Z’s” are sick of coming last all the time; and with purchase limits, there must be no repeat of the idiotic panic buying).

But it is useless to address the virus pool in the community without also confronting infection coming into the country. Demountable buildings are to be put into airports and at sea ports, and with NO exceptions –not for king, president, or pope– all people entering the country are isolated for that incubation period; whether they have tested positive or not, all people entering the country are to be isolated at the point of entry, and after the incubation period, and a negative tests, they can be released into the community.

 

2. Politicians seem happy to talk about a likely recession, the unemployment rate doubling or tripling, and the economic repercussions being felt for a generation. Which is to say: they have no plan, they do not care, and in truth, they are admitting to their incompetence and failure. Workers who lose jobs through no fault of their own may lose their house, their marriage may break down due to economic stress, they may suicide.  Any politician who accepts this misery as a necessary thing is behaving unconscionably.

The industries hardest hit are tourism, hospitality, and air travel, and they do need immediate support. The government provides all workers with a free 2 week holiday: it pays 2 weeks at the average Australian wage to the worker (the business does not pay), and all costs of the holiday (subject to eg a $5000 limit, maybe with something similar to the cashless dole card), with the condition that the holiday must involve some kind of air travel, must be within Australia, and  must be used within 6 months (emergency workers who could not self-isolate are given 2 years to use it).

Of course there are details to work out, but they are not insurmountable. It is a worthwhile plan, and would cost much less than the proposed government spending. The infection must be addressed decisively: there is a window of opportunity to act before infection is widespread, before health resources are overwhelmed; the infection must be addressed decisively and successfully before our attention can be turned to the economy, but it can be done, and we can show the world how to do it.

What is manifestly clear is that the political class have no plan, and when the dust settles, many Australians may have needlessly died, and many more jobless or in poverty.

Do WE accept THEIR vision of OUR future, do WE again pay the price for THEIR failure??

NO! I say.

As with the unwillingness to act on climate change, with the Covid-19 response we are again seeing demonstrated the incompetence and unaccountability of the political class –they cannot help but make a bad situation worse.

If there is an economic recession or depression to follow, and the incompetence of the political class in dealing with Covid-19 is any indication of how they would respond to that, then we are . . . . .

fucked!!

Why is Australian democracy broken?

Australia: the only Western-style democracy with neither a bill or charter of rights and freedoms, nor a federal anti-corruption body.